Capital Outflows From China Sovereign Bonds Just Hit $30 Billion

2022-07-23 03:10:54 By : Ms. mandy shi

(Bloomberg) -- China’s bond market is becoming the locus for global capital outflows and there are signs the government is growing concerned about the $30 billion exodus as it delays data and seeks to manage investor expectations.

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Foreign funds offloaded 55.9 billion yuan ($8.3 billion) of the nation’s debt in June, a fifth month of net sales that swelled the total outflows this year to 200 billion yuan. That’s an abrupt reversal for a market that had seen global participation grow every year since 2014, when Bloomberg started compiling data based on official figures.

In one way, the outflows aren’t surprising as they come after aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes caused the premium offered by China’s bond yields over Treasuries to become a discount. Yet, the exodus is a concern given it’s taking place at a sensitive time before a key leadership summit this year, and coincides with an escalating economic and property-market crisis.

China’s officials have downplayed the outflows, insisting the country is still an important destination for cross-border bond investments.

“Fluctuations in bond flows are very common in both developed and emerging markets, while the volatility seen in China is relatively low,” Chunying Wang, a spokeswoman for the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, told reporters on Friday. Index-tracking funds and global central-bank allocations are helping to stabilize the situation, especially as the latter account for over half the total of Chinese debt held by overseas investors, she said.

The publication of the June bond figures by China Central Depository & Clearing Co. took place about a week later than in previous months. Interbank-bond-market figures released by the central bank’s Shanghai head office on Friday were also delayed, as they are typically sent out in the first half of each month. In May, China’s bond-trading platform for foreign investors quietly stopped providing data on its transactions.

Foreign investors still held 2.32 trillion yuan of Chinese debt at the end of June, well above the 221 billion yuan they owned in 2014. The opening up of China’s capital markets and the inclusion of the nation’s debt in more global bond indexes has attracted central banks and global investors eager to tap its higher yields.

“The bulk of the remaining foreign holdings of Chinese fixed-income assets reflects reserve manager, sovereign wealth fund and index tracking demand,” said Lemon Zhang, a strategist at Barclays Plc in Singapore. Looking ahead, large inflows are unlikely as investors aren’t optimistic on duration or China’s currency, while higher global yields provide alternatives, she said.

Demand for Chinese bonds has waned in recent months as US 10-year yields surged above 3%, while similar-maturity yields in China remained stuck in a range of 2.7% to 2.85% due to the People’s Bank of China’s accommodative monetary policy.

“Bond inflows are unlikely to make a strong comeback due to the narrowed nominal yield differentials,” said Frances Cheung, rates strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. “The argument that Chinese government bonds are more resilient in the face of rising yields may also be weakening, as further increases in global yields may be seen as smaller than we observed in previous months.”

There are other signs of concerns about capital outflows too. Chinese regulatory officials have recently been ordered to exercise greater caution when it comes to reviewing new overseas spending and investment plans due to concern higher US interest rates will increase capital outflows, people familiar with the matter said this month.

The share of overseas investors’ holdings in China’s sovereign bonds dropped below 10% at the end of June for the first time since January 2021. Foreign funds also sold a net 90 million yuan of local government debt and 35.47 billion yuan of policy bank notes last month, the ChinaBond data also showed.

(Updates to add strategist comment in eighth paragraph, extra bond data in 12th)

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